Expert System for Calibration of HSPF
HSPEXP interactively allows the user to edit the input User
Control Input (UCI) file for the Hydrologic Simulation
Program--Fortran (HSPF), simulate with HSPF, produce plots of
HSPF output compared to observed values, compute error statistics
for a simulation, and provide the user with expert advice on
which parameters should be changed up or down to improve the
calibration. In general, the user will spend time repeating the
cycle of simulate, compute statistics, see plots, get advice, and
edit the parameters.
The expert system uses over 35 rules involving over 80
conditions to recommend parameter adjustments. The rules are
divided into four phases-- annual volumes, low flows, storm
flows, and seasonal flows. Rules in subsequent phases are not
tested until all rules in the previous phase pass. The rules are
based on the experience of experts in the use of HSPF in a wide
range of climates and physiographic regions.
Artificial intelligence was first used with HSPF on a project
at the Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, Calif., to
estimate initial values for model parameters. HSPEXP is the
result of a USGS project to create an expert system to assist
with the calibration of a watershed model. The prototype was
developed with AI software tools and when properly tuned was
converted to ANSI standard Fortran using the Graphical Kernel
System (GKS) for portability.
Meteorologic records of precipitation and estimates of
potential evapotranspiration in a Watershed Data Management (WDM)
file are required for watershed simulation. Air temperature, dew
point temperature, wind, and solar radiation also are required
for snowmelt. Air temperature, wind, solar radiation, humidity,
cloud cover, tillage practices, point sources, and (or) pesticide
applications may be required for water-quality simulation.
Physical measurements and related parameters are required to
describe the land area, channels, and reservoirs.
Output options include tables of statistics comparing observed
and simulated data, 10 different types of graphical
presentations, and tables of the expert advice. Time-series
output from simulation is placed in the WDM file. Output may be
viewed interactively or written to text files for printing.
HSPEXP has been used on the HSPF applications on the Patuxent
River, Maryland, the Lesueur River Basin, Minnesota, and the
Truckee River, California-Nevada.
Obtain a copy of HSPEXP from the
Water Resources Division of the
